Using Bayesian Attack Detection Models to Drive Cyber Deception

We present a method to devise, execute, and assess a cyber deception. The aim is to cause an adversary to believe they are under a cyber attack when in fact they are not. Cyber network defense relies on human and computational systems that can reason over multiple individual evidentiary items to detect the presence of meta events, i.e., cyber attacks. Many of these systems aggregate and reason over alerts from Networkbased Intrusion Detection Systems (NIDS). Such systems use byte patterns as attack signatures to analyze network traffic and generate corresponding alerts. Current aggregation and reasoning tools use a variety of techniques to model meta-events, among them Bayesian Networks. However, the inputs to these models are based on network traffic which is inherently subject to manipulation. In this work, we demonstrate a capability to remotely and artificially trigger specific meta events in a potentially unknown model. We use an existing and known Bayesian Network based cyber attack detection system to guide construction of deceptive network packets. These network packets are not actual attacks or exploits, but rather contain selected features of attack traffic embedded in benign content. We provide these packets to a different cyber attack detection system to gauge their generalizability and effect. We combine the deception packets' characteristics, the second system's response, and external observables to propose a deception model to assess the effectiveness of the manufactured network traffic on our target. We demonstrate the development and execution of a specific deception, and we propose the corresponding deception model.